Here's an uncomfortable question: When was the last time you attempted something you might actually fail at?
Not something that felt hard in the moment—like dragging yourself to the gym or finishing a difficult project at work. Something with a genuine, non-trivial chance of not working out.
For most people, the honest answer is: a long time ago. Maybe years. Maybe never.
We've become experts at choosing goals we know we can achieve. Lose ten pounds (we've done it before, we can do it again). Read 20 books (manageable with effort). Run a 5K (millions of people do it every weekend).
Safe goals. Achievable goals. Goals that won't embarrass us if we share them at dinner parties.
And that's exactly the problem.
The Goldilocks Zone of Goals
When you're selecting a Misogi—a year-defining challenge—there's a principle that separates transformative goals from forgettable ones. Jesse Itzler, who popularized the modern Misogi concept, calls it the 50% rule:
Your goal should have roughly a 50% chance of success.
Not 90%. Not 10%. Fifty percent.
This sounds simple, but it's deceptively radical. Most goal-setting advice pushes you toward "SMART" goals—Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound. The emphasis on "achievable" nudges people toward goals they're confident they can hit.
The 50% rule says the opposite: if you're confident you'll succeed, your goal isn't ambitious enough.
Think about what a 50% success rate actually means:
- There's a real chance you'll fail
- The outcome is genuinely uncertain
- You'll need to grow to have a shot
- Success would be a legitimate achievement, not just checking a box
That uncertainty is the point. It's where growth lives.
Why We Avoid Risky Goals
If goals with uncertain outcomes are more transformative, why don't we choose them?
The answer is embarrassingly simple: we're afraid of looking bad.
Setting a goal you might fail at requires vulnerability. You're announcing to yourself—and maybe to others—that you want something you're not sure you can get. If you fail, you can't hide behind "I wasn't really trying" or "It wasn't that important to me."
So we play it safe. We set goals that are challenging enough to sound impressive but safe enough that failure is unlikely. We optimize for ego protection rather than growth.
This manifests in predictable ways:
The "Realistic" Trap: "I'll run a half-marathon" instead of a full marathon. "I'll write 50,000 words" instead of a finished novel. "I'll learn basic Spanish" instead of conversational fluency. Each downgrade feels sensible. Responsible. And each one removes the transformative edge.
The Hedged Commitment: "I'll try to..." or "My goal is to hopefully..." The language of retreat is built in from the start. If you fail, you weren't really committed anyway.
The Private Goal: Keeping your ambitions secret so no one witnesses if you fall short. But privacy removes accountability, and accountability is often the difference between quitting in March and pushing through the dip.
The Problem with Easy Goals
Let's say you pick a goal with a 90% chance of success. You finish it. What happens?
You get a small dopamine hit. You check the box. You feel briefly satisfied.
And then... nothing. The year continues. You don't feel fundamentally different. The achievement fades into the background noise of life.
Here's why: goals you're confident about don't require you to change.
If you can achieve something with your current skills, mindset, and habits, then achieving it won't transform you. You'll be the same person who started, just with one more accomplishment on the list.
This is fine for task management. It's terrible for personal growth.
The whole point of a year-defining challenge is to become someone new in the process of pursuing it. The person who finishes a marathon is different from the person who signed up. The person who publishes a novel has been transformed by the writing. The person who summits a mountain has confronted fear and discomfort and come out changed.
That transformation requires struggle. And struggle requires uncertainty.
The Problem with Impossible Goals
"Okay," you might think, "if 90% is too safe, why not go for 10%? Why not shoot for the moon?"
Because impossible goals are demotivating, not inspiring.
When the gap between where you are and where you want to be feels insurmountable, your brain doesn't rise to the challenge—it shuts down. Why bother training today if the marathon is 26.2 miles and you can barely run one? Why write today if the novel feels like an impossibly distant fantasy?
Impossible goals also provide an excuse. If the goal was always unrealistic, failure doesn't reflect on you. You can abandon it guilt-free because "no one could have done that anyway."
This is why goals like "make a million dollars this year" or "become fluent in five languages" rarely lead to action. They're fantasies dressed up as goals. They feel inspiring to imagine but provide no traction for actual daily work.
The Magic of 50%
A goal with 50% odds hits the psychological sweet spot:
It's possible. You can genuinely imagine succeeding. You can picture crossing the finish line, holding the book, standing on the summit. The outcome is plausible, not fantastical.
It's not guaranteed. You'll need to grow, adapt, and persevere. You'll face setbacks that could derail you. The outcome depends on what you do, day after day, for months.
Every day matters. With a 50% goal, each training session, each writing session, each step of progress tips the probability slightly in your favor. You're not just going through the motions—you're actually improving your odds.
Failure teaches. If you fall short of a 50% goal, you learn something real. You discover your limits, yes, but also where you could have pushed harder or prepared better. A failed Misogi often becomes the foundation for a successful one the following year.
Success is sweet. When you achieve something you genuinely might have failed at, the satisfaction is incomparable. You didn't just check a box—you did something hard. Something that many people couldn't do.
How to Find Your 50%
So how do you identify a goal with genuine uncertainty?
Ask: "Would I be embarrassed to fail at this?"
If the answer is no—if you could fail and shrug it off—the goal probably isn't ambitious enough. A proper Misogi should make you a little nervous to declare. Failure should sting.
Ask: "Have I done something like this before?"
If yes, you might need to level up. Ran a half-marathon? Maybe your Misogi is a full marathon. Finished a 10K? Maybe it's a sub-50 minute 10K—same distance, higher stakes.
If you've never done anything like this, that uncertainty is a good sign. Novel challenges carry inherent risk.
Ask: "Could I fail even if I try my hardest?"
This is the key question. If maximum effort guarantees success, the goal isn't in the 50% zone. You want something where success depends on sustained excellence—where consistency matters, where you'll need to solve problems you can't predict, where the outcome is genuinely in doubt.
Ask: "What would I need to become to achieve this?"
A 50% goal requires growth. If you can achieve it as your current self, it's probably too easy. If you'd need to become a fundamentally different person—more disciplined, more skilled, more resilient—you're in the right territory.
Examples: Easy vs. 50% Goals
Let's make this concrete:
Running:
- Too easy: "Run 3x per week" (habit, not achievement)
- 50%: "Run a marathon" (if you've never done one)
- 50%: "Qualify for Boston" (if you've run marathons but never fast enough)
- Too hard: "Win your local marathon" (unless you're already elite)
Writing:
- Too easy: "Write 500 words a day" (habit, not achievement)
- 50%: "Finish a 80,000-word novel" (if you've never completed one)
- 50%: "Finish a novel AND get it published" (if you've finished drafts before)
- Too hard: "Write a NYT bestseller" (too many variables outside your control)
Fitness:
- Too easy: "Go to the gym consistently" (vague habit)
- 50%: "Complete an Ironman triathlon" (massive undertaking for most people)
- 50%: "Do 100 consecutive pushups" (specific, difficult, achievable with training)
- Too hard: "Get to 5% body fat" (unhealthy and unsustainable for most)
Creative:
- Too easy: "Paint more" (vague)
- 50%: "Create 100 paintings and host a solo exhibition" (ambitious but achievable)
- 50%: "Produce and release a 10-song album" (requires sustained creative output)
- Too hard: "Get your art in a major museum" (too dependent on gatekeepers)
Notice the pattern: 50% goals are specific, ambitious, and mostly within your control. They're not about external validation or luck—they're about sustained effort toward a concrete target.
Recalibrating Throughout the Year
Here's something important: your 50% estimate will change.
In January, the marathon might feel like a coin flip. By April, after three months of consistent training, it might feel like 70%. By September, after a minor injury setback, it might drop to 40%.
This fluctuation is normal. The point isn't to maintain exactly 50% odds all year—it's to start with a goal that has genuine uncertainty and then work to tip the odds in your favor.
What you don't want is a goal that starts at 95% and stays there. That's not a Misogi. That's just a to-do item with a long timeline.
The Freedom of Uncertain Goals
There's an unexpected gift in choosing goals you might fail at: freedom from the pressure of guaranteed success.
When you pick a safe goal, the expectation is 100% achievement. Anything less feels like failure. The pressure mounts because you "should" be able to do this.
When you pick a 50% goal, failure is built into the equation. You're not supposed to definitely succeed—that would make it too easy. You're attempting something hard. Something ambitious. Something most people wouldn't try.
This reframe is liberating. You can give maximum effort without the crushing expectation of guaranteed results. You can push yourself into genuine discomfort knowing that the struggle itself is the point, regardless of the outcome.
Athletes understand this intuitively. No runner expects to win every race. No basketball player expects to make every shot. The challenge is the thing. The effort is the thing. The outcome is uncertain by design.
Your year can work the same way.
What If You Fail?
Let's address the fear directly: what happens if you attempt a 50% goal and don't make it?
First, you'll have grown more than if you'd played it safe. The person who trains for a marathon but finishes at mile 20 is still dramatically fitter and more resilient than the person who never started.
Second, you'll have clarity. You'll know what went wrong, where you could have done better, what you'd do differently. This knowledge becomes the foundation for next year's Misogi.
Third, you'll have a story. "I attempted something hard and fell short" is far more interesting than "I accomplished another modest goal." The attempt itself is admirable.
And fourth, you can try again. A failed Misogi in 2025 can become a successful Misogi in 2026. The story gets better when you persevere across years.
The Year-Defining Question
Here's how to reframe your goal selection:
Instead of asking "What can I definitely achieve this year?" ask:
"What would I attempt if I knew failure was acceptable?"
The answer might scare you. Good. That fear is a signal that you're in the right territory.
Not sure what that goal might be? Check out our 50 Misogi ideas or read our guide on how to choose your Misogi for a step-by-step framework.
The years are going to pass regardless. You can fill them with safe accomplishments that fade into the background. Or you can attempt something bold—something with a genuine chance of failure—and discover what you're actually capable of.
The 50% rule isn't about seeking failure. It's about seeking growth. And growth only happens at the edge of your current abilities, where the outcome is genuinely in doubt.
Pick something scary. Pick something uncertain. Pick something that might not work.
That's where the transformation lives.
Track Your Bold Goal
We built the Misogi app for people who are ready to attempt something meaningful—goals that don't fit neatly into habit trackers or resolution lists.
- Define your Misogi with a clear, ambitious target
- Log daily progress to tip the odds in your favor
- Watch consistency compound over 365 days
- Stay accountable with a community of people doing hard things
If you're ready to pick a goal you might fail at, we're ready to help you chase it.
Key Takeaways
- The most transformative goals have roughly a 50% chance of success—not too safe, not impossible
- Easy goals (90%+ success rate) don't require growth and fade from memory
- Impossible goals (10% success rate) are demotivating and provide an excuse to quit
- 50% goals hit the sweet spot: possible enough to motivate, uncertain enough to transform
- Signs you're in the 50% zone: you'd be embarrassed to fail, you haven't done it before, and you'd need to grow to succeed
- The uncertainty is a feature, not a bug—it's what makes the achievement meaningful
- Even if you fail at a 50% goal, you'll have grown more than if you'd played it safe